U.S. Housing & Mortgage Outlook for 2026

The U.S. housing market is poised for a healthier, more active year in 2026, with major forecasters calling for lower mortgage rates, more home sales, and steady—not runaway—price growth.
A Market Turning the Corner
After several years of low inventory and higher borrowing costs, many economists see 2026 as a turning point rather than a repeat of the recent slowdown. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects that existing-home sales could rise by about 14% in 2026, helped by easing mortgage rates and solid job growth. At the same time, NAR expects nationwide home prices to increase around 4%, supported by strong demand and an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.

Mortgage Rates: Gradual Relief, Not a Freefall
Prospective buyers should not expect a return to the ultra-low rates of the pandemic era, but several respected forecasts see meaningful improvement ahead. Fannie Mae’s latest outlook, for example, calls for the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate to drift down to roughly 5.9% by the end of 2026, after finishing 2025 closer to 6.4%. A separate review of forecasts from Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor. com finds a similar consensus, with many experts expecting rates to average in the low‑6% range in 2026, with occasional dips below 6%.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, even a modest move from the high‑6% range to around 6% or just under can improve affordability and widen the price range that fits comfortably into a monthly budget. Combined with the expected increase in listings as more owners feel confident about selling, this should create a more balanced, less frustrating experience than the ultra‑competitive markets of the recent past. Sellers, meanwhile, can take some comfort in forecasts that call for continued price growth—not a decline—provided homes are priced realistically and presented well.

Why 2026 Could Be a Planning Year, Not a Waiting Game
The most important takeaway from these forecasts is not to try to “time the bottom” in rates, but to plan around realistic scenarios and personal goals. Whether the average 30‑year fixed rate ends up closer to 6.3% or 5.9%, the broader trend points toward a more stable, predictable lending environment that can support confident long‑term decisions. Working with a knowledgeable mortgage professional can help buyers and homeowners compare options, run payment scenarios, and be ready to act quickly when the right home or rate opportunity appears in 2026.