How The Fed Affects Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve plays an influential but indirect role. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, but its decisions around interest rates significantly impact the financial landscape, including the cost of borrowing to buy a home. Understanding the Fed’s role in monetary policy is key to grasping how mortgage rates fluctuate and what might drive up or lower the rate on your home loan.

The Federal Reserve primarily influences short-term borrowing costs by setting the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. When the Fed raises or lowers this rate, it affects the broader economy by influencing rates on credit cards, car loans, and home equity lines of credit. While fixed mortgage rates aren’t directly tied to the federal funds rate, the ripple effects of the Fed’s decisions can still be felt. Notably, in 2022 and 2023, the Fed raised rates to combat inflation, leading to higher borrowing costs across the board, including for homebuyers.

Fixed-rate mortgages, which are popular among homeowners, are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When the yield rises or falls, fixed mortgage rates tend to follow suit. However, mortgage rates aren’t an exact match to Treasury yields; they typically have a gap of 1.5 to 2 percentage points. Recently, this gap has widened, making mortgages more expensive. Other factors such as inflation, supply and demand in the mortgage market, and investor activity in the secondary mortgage market also influence fixed-rate mortgage costs.

For those with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), the Fed’s rate decisions have a more direct impact. ARMs are often tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which moves in response to changes in the federal funds rate. When the Fed raises its rate, the SOFR tends to increase, causing ARM rates to rise during their next adjustment period. In conclusion, while the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates outright, its policies shape the economic conditions that drive both fixed and adjustable-rate mortgages, affecting how much you’ll pay for your home loan.